Tag Archives: success

The real question is, IS the probability of failure is greater than the probability of success?

Having studied statistics and quantum mechanics back in the late 80s at university (It has changed a little bit since then). I understand this life dimension runs between a number of statistic probabilities which in general provide a limited set of outcomes that on average can be determined. Thus having been born in the rural West Midlands(UK), living in a  village for the last 15 years, I will live until I’m 82 years old, as most of the street which I live on have. Job done!!

I don’t believe in enterprise because I want to keep the status quo!! Everything must change, change is the only option,change is good, so how do I change the probability in the favor of enterprise?

So should I even think about this?

I was walking in the forest with my wife, its was during the snow fall last February on a Saturday afternoon. A big forest which leads no where and goes no where, its just a big forest. So what is the probability that we three sets of people meet at the same time(yes same time, same place, all within one metre of each other) these people…

One man warring a three piece suite with two children, also carrying a pink bike
One man caring two plastic shopping bags full of shopping
A woman with two dogs talking on her mobile phone

OK, I think its about 170 million to one.

But if I could bottle it and give this to entrepreneurs who are starting a business, they would pay, being able to fix a 170 million one chance, just pure gold. Every day in my life I see these amazingly high probability opportunities come forward. I am sure I should say serendipity but  …

The real question is, IS the probability of failure is greater than the probability of success?

Given tomorrow, I will sit in a train carriage with a three other random people, who will never have meet, never meet again and spend a brief moment in time which will change the complete history of our galaxy.

Those who fail are not recorded in history. Thus the probability of success is just equal to 1. (Which means the probability of failure is just zero which is why we where we are, right now)

Given we will succeed, what path will you take in this?

The Three Stages of Entrepreneurship

The process can be easily split into three stages: Thinking, Doing and Growing.

Thinking about Starting

The start-up phase is thinking, making plans, developing the right motivation to start and develop the aptitude to be an entrepreneur. For some people this is the hardest part and they struggle to choose an idea, develop the idea past just that and get other involved in making the idea reality. The majority of entrepreneurs never had the luxury to have to sit down and brainstorm ideas, then using innovation techniques decide on the best idea and then market research which one of the shortlist to take forward to a business. I still believe in the ‘gut instinct’ method, if you don’t have the guts to make the decision you want to take forward, then you don’t have the guts to make it work, so stay and get yourself a job in someone else’s business.

Doing a Startup

The doing phase is the hardest, it’s the one all the famous entrepreneurs don’t talk about, it’s the part where you spend 18 hours a day, 7 days a week making this business inch forward to some form of success. In this stage you need to start to build relationships with your staff, your bank, your suppliers and your customers. This relationship has to develop a trust and a strong bond which allow everyone to understand who they are and what value they provide into the business model. If someone doesn’t understand this then they will become the weakest link in your business.

Growing a Startup

The final stage is growth, personal growth, business growth, network growth and sales growth. This stage is normally post 36 months and it’s the point where the business model and relationships with suppliers is well established. The bank actually like and trust you. The most important part of this stage is to figure out ‘what type of entrepreneur you are?’ and what you can and cannot do, what you want and do not want to do. The things you don’t want to do, hire someone better that you. The thing you want to do and no good at, then develop some skills, in fact you will need to develop skills anyway. Knowing yourself will ensure your business has a solid foundation.  In this stage you need to develop stronger bonds with your local community as you require more employees, more space and more flexible and understanding relationships with those around you.

What business should I start?

This is the million dollar question, and so hard to explain to people.

I always talk about passion and how if you have passion then you will be more successful. It’s more than this, if you do not believe in what you are doing and have the ability to drive yourself 12 hours a day to strive for success then success will not be able to find you. Passion for the product, the service and your customers is a real source of energy, drive and determination which is an enormous help.

However some people have a passion for making money, being financial stable and independent. These people would have the passion to sell tea spoons, or sand or just about anything. For these people I tell them:

Its about Basic Needs

Maslow is famous for setting out people’s needs. He stated that people need the following in the following order:

Physiological(food, water, health, sleep), Safety and Security(employment, finances, resources, family, property), Love and Belonging (friendship, family, sexual intimacy), Esteem (confidence, achievement, respect) and Self Actualisation (creativity, problem solving, acceptance of facts).

If you walk down the high street, every shop is based on one of these needs. The most successful ones are those which basic needs, food, water, health. The more basic the need, the greater the market size, the more people wait it and the better chances you have of selling more and being more successful. There are lots of examples: Bottled Water, Coffee Shops, Hotels, Fast Food….

Take a look at you spend and what products you buy, how can you better or improve on the products you buy?

Its about trends

People are living longer. This means there will be larger population, resources will be have to be shared and will cost more (supply and demand). The price of land, minerals, financial resources and even the virtual world will increase. More of these people will be old(er), more will have an illness, more will need help, more will be in the process of dying. There is money to be made out of each and every stage of life.

People have more money. The rich will always be rich and the poor will always be poor. Be definition you cannot have one without the other. Greed drives one to master the other. Those with money will and always have wanted to live in individual place, have different social clubs and have people to help them enjoy and spend their money.

There will always be people moving around the globe, people will move for work, holidays and migration as they have for thousands of years. Every day China and India get richer and this massive population will wait to travel, have the experience of seeing the Pyramids, Eiffel Tower and Sydney Harbour.

The economies of the world will change to develop new sources of energy which ensures the growth. Do you think China and India have done all this hard work only to run out of energy? With new energy sources come new opportunities to manage, measure and profit from it.

The internet will get bigger, faster. Moores law will continue to ensure we can double processing power every 18 months. Applications will be created which will allow the most amazing integrations of library information, personal environmental data and social interaction. Please remember the words of Darth Vader “All your technology is insignificant to the power of the force.” The force being peoples habits. After all we still live in houses created hundreds of years ago.

In short there are so many opportunities that you just need to look for the one that fits your skills, appetite for risk and aptitude.

Who should be in your entrepreneurial team

Business is about working with other people, it’s about trading with these ‘other’ people for mutual benefit. The successful entrepreneur knows their strengths and more importantly their weaknesses.  It is these lesser properties that they develop a team around them who can compliment and strengthen their abilities. So who do you need?

Every Entrepreneur has to sell and has to learn the trade, but sometimes sales can be more account management, telesales, people management which entrepreneurs tend to lack certain skills in maturing. Sales generate revenue, profit and growth in a business and therefore you need proactive people who can promote the business and generate interest and sales. It may be necessary to look at different business models which incorporate your style of sales, from franchising, selling to trade or on-line merchant. However the further you are away from the customer the less you may make in profit.

The financial management of the business is important in the development of the business, understanding and communicating this to the shareholders, banks and suppliers is a major success factor. There are two skills within finance which the entrepreneur should source, one is bookkeeping the other financial planning and reporting. Bookkeeping is easily outsourced on an hourly or part time basis. Financial planning and reporting is normally where entrepreneurs need help and it here you should bring in someone who can act as a part time financial director. They will be the big gun you can bring out to demonstrate the finances of the business are in very good hands.

Someone has to manage the operations of the business, they are in charge of making stuff, they are the person who gets given the order from the customer and then deliver the products. This may include manufacturing, purchasing, warehousing and logistics. This role is the heart of the business, they make the money, create the value and ultimately the reputation of the business. If they fail, the business will.

The nature of business means we have to protect our business interests with legal documents and enforce our position with legal action. The closer your legal adviser is to your business the easier it will be to ensure you are protected. The relationship you have with this person is important in developing an on-going business relationship and not just ‘calling you in to sort out my rubbish’ attitude. The general rule in the legal world is the fees reflect the depth of the hole the client is in. So no hole means smaller fees.

Every entrepreneur should have a mentor, someone who has done this before, can provide advice based on knowledge. This person is someone you can turn to, you can ask for advice and when things go wrong can help reflect and learn your failures, ensuring your next opportunity is a even greater success.

Finally, the one person which your business could not survive without:  The Customer. This person is an important part of the team, they buy into your business every time they purchase your product. They will offer advice, feedback and recommendations which will be free of consult fees, future contracts or telling what they think you want to hear. Use this amazing group to develop your business and treat them as part of your team.

Now go out and find your team!